Estimation of Sediment Deposition at Nausehri Reservoir by Using Multiple Linear Regression and Assessment of its Effect on Hydropower Generation Capacity

Abstract

This article presents investigation of the inflow of sediments depending upon the
stream flow, density and kinematic viscosity of water. The process involves Multiple
Linear Regression (MLR) technique for estimation of sediment load and volume, by
using UNISTAT software (Version 5.6). A general equation is developed for a specific
flow rate while considering density and kinematic viscosity of water as other parameters. The developed equation can be applied in future for determining the
sediment concentration when the flow rate is known. The daily stream flow and
suspended sediment data belonging to the station Nausehri operated by the Water and
Power Development Authority, Pakistan is used as case study. The results indicate that
the dam site experiences a mean annual sediment load of 3.74mst. With this much
incoming sediment load the reservoir life comes out to be 45 years when no flushing
is done. The impact of this sediment deposition on hydro-electric energy generation is
also determined, which shows a decrease of 113MW (12%) in the production capacity
of the power plant over the life of the reservoir